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Sport Chavelines Juniors vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

Sport Chavelines Juniors
Sport Chavelines Juniors
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
12/7/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 7Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Sport Chavelines Juniors44%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Coopsol31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.54
Deportivo Coopsol
1.27

Sport Chavelines Juniors creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.45
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

Sport Chavelines Juniors
1.35
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

Sport Chavelines Juniors+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Chavelines Juniors ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sport Chavelines Juniors or draw
69%
Sport Chavelines Juniors or Deportivo Coopsol
75%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
56%

Winning margin

Sport Chavelines Juniors wins by 2+
22%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sport Chavelines Juniors 1+ goals
79%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 2+ goals
45%
Sport Chavelines Juniors 3+ goals
20%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sport Chavelines Juniors (draw refunded)
58%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Chavelines Juniors at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Chavelines Juniors attack 1.45 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.54

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + Sport Chavelines Juniors defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Chavelines Juniors scores more
44%
level
25%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
31%

Sport Chavelines Juniors at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sport Chavelines Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Chavelines Juniors vs Deportivo Coopsol

Sport Chavelines Juniors beat Deportivo Coopsol 1-0 in Segunda División on December 7, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.