Sport Brasil ES 0–2 Rio Branco-VN: Result & Stats

Sport Brasil ES

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rio Branco-VN

Lukinha 86'

Juninho 7'

5/31/2026

Copa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sport Brasil ES28%

×Draw25%

Rio Branco-VN47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport Brasil ESExpected goals in this matchRio Branco-VN

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.58

Sport Brasil ES

1.17

Rio Branco-VN

1.58

Rio Branco-VN creates 35% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

0.83

creates per match

0.92

2.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sport Brasil ES

0.83

Rio Branco-VN

0.92

allows per match

Sport Brasil ES

2.25

Rio Branco-VN

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Brasil ES+0.00on par

Rio Branco-VN+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Brasil ES ↓

Rio Branco-VN →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sport Brasil ES or draw

53%

Sport Brasil ES or Rio Branco-VN

75%

Draw or Rio Branco-VN

72%

Winning margin

Sport Brasil ES wins by 2+

11%

Rio Branco-VN wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sport Brasil ES 1+ goals

69%

Sport Brasil ES 2+ goals

33%

Sport Brasil ES 3+ goals

11%

Rio Branco-VN 1+ goals

79%

Rio Branco-VN 2+ goals

47%

Rio Branco-VN 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sport Brasil ES (draw refunded)

38%

Rio Branco-VN (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Brasil ES at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Rio Branco-VN away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Brasil ES attack 0.83 + Rio Branco-VN defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rio Branco-VN attack 0.92 + Sport Brasil ES defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sport Brasil ES scores more

28%

level

25%

Rio Branco-VN scores more

47%

Rio Branco-VN at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rio Branco-VN will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Juninho

86'

Lukinha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff