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Sport Brasil ES vs Porto Vitória — Copa Espírito Santo 2024

Sport Brasil ES
Sport Brasil ES
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Porto Vitória
Porto Vitória
Unknown 85', 80', 70', 48', 43', 19'
4/23/2025Copa Espírito SantoCopa Espírito Santo · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Gil Bernardes da Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Sport Brasil ES16%
×Draw21%
Porto Vitória63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Brasil ES
0.86
Porto Vitória
1.98

Porto Vitória creates 130% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 20 away

creates per match

Sport Brasil ES
0.83
Porto Vitória
1.70

allows per match

Sport Brasil ES
2.25
Porto Vitória
0.90

finishing

Sport Brasil ES+0.00on par
Porto Vitória+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Brasil ES ↓

Porto Vitória →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sport Brasil ES or draw
37%
Sport Brasil ES or Porto Vitória
79%
Draw or Porto Vitória
84%

Winning margin

Sport Brasil ES wins by 2+
5%
Porto Vitória wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Sport Brasil ES 1+ goals
58%
Sport Brasil ES 2+ goals
21%
Sport Brasil ES 3+ goals
6%
Porto Vitória 1+ goals
86%
Porto Vitória 2+ goals
59%
Porto Vitória 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Sport Brasil ES (draw refunded)
20%
Porto Vitória (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Brasil ES at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Porto Vitória away — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Brasil ES attack 0.83 + Porto Vitória defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.86

Porto Vitória attack 1.70 + Sport Brasil ES defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sport Brasil ES scores more
16%
level
21%
Porto Vitória scores more
63%

Porto Vitória at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Porto Vitória will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
43'
48'
70'
80'
85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Brasil ES vs Porto Vitória

Porto Vitória beat Sport Brasil ES 6-0 in Copa Espírito Santo on April 23, 2025.

Goals: ? (19', 43', 48', 70', 80', 85').

The match was played at Estádio Gil Bernardes da Silveira in Vila Velha, Espírito Santo.