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Sport Boys vs The Strongest — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
The Strongest
The Strongest
8/8/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys36%
×Draw25%
The Strongest39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.43
The Strongest
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 132 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
The Strongest
1.60

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
The Strongest
1.32

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
The Strongest+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

The Strongest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
61%
Sport Boys or The Strongest
75%
Draw or The Strongest
64%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
17%
The Strongest wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
76%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
42%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
17%
The Strongest 1+ goals
78%
The Strongest 2+ goals
44%
The Strongest 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
48%
The Strongest (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

The Strongest away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.32 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + The Strongest defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

The Strongest attack 1.60 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Boys scores more
36%
level
25%
The Strongest scores more
39%

The Strongest at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "The Strongest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs The Strongest

Sport Boys beat The Strongest 1-0 in Primera División on August 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes).