Sport Boys 0–2 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Cristal

7/26/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 145+ matches

Sport Boys32%

×Draw25%

Sporting Cristal43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.51

Sport Boys

1.27

Sporting Cristal

1.51

Sporting Cristal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 156 away

1.30

creates per match

1.79

1.23

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.30

Sporting Cristal

1.79

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.23

Sporting Cristal

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

57%

Sport Boys or Sporting Cristal

75%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

68%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

14%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

72%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

36%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

14%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

44%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

43%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 145 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Boys scores more

32%

level

25%

Sporting Cristal scores more

43%

Sporting Cristal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff