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Sport Boys vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
11/11/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 14Estadio Miguel Grau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Boys54%
×Draw24%
Sport Rosario22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.72
Sport Rosario
1.02

Sport Boys creates 69% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.30
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.23
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
78%
Sport Boys or Sport Rosario
76%
Draw or Sport Rosario
46%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
29%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
82%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
51%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
25%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
64%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
27%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
71%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 145 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sport Boys scores more
54%
level
24%
Sport Rosario scores more
22%

Sport Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Boys 3–1 Sport Rosario

Sport Boys beat Sport Rosario 3-1 in Primera División on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau in Callao.