Sport Boys 1–1 San José: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San José

7/28/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys54%

×Draw22%

San José24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchSan José

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.24

Sport Boys

1.97

San José

1.24

Sport Boys creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 54 away

1.54

creates per match

1.06

1.42

allows per match

2.39

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.54

San José

1.06

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.42

San José

2.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par

San José+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

San José →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

76%

Sport Boys or San José

78%

Draw or San José

46%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

32%

San José wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

86%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

58%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

31%

San José 1+ goals

71%

San José 2+ goals

35%

San José 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

69%

San José (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

San José away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.39 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + San José defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.97

San José attack 1.06 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sport Boys scores more

54%

level

22%

San José scores more

24%

Sport Boys at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff