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Sport Boys vs Royal Pari — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Royal Pari
Royal Pari
1/30/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys48%
×Draw24%
Royal Pari29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.73
Royal Pari
1.29

Sport Boys creates 34% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 112 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
Royal Pari
1.17

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
Royal Pari
1.93

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Royal Pari+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Royal Pari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
71%
Sport Boys or Royal Pari
76%
Draw or Royal Pari
52%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
26%
Royal Pari wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
82%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
52%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
25%
Royal Pari 1+ goals
72%
Royal Pari 2+ goals
37%
Royal Pari 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
62%
Royal Pari (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Royal Pari away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Royal Pari defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.73

Royal Pari attack 1.17 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sport Boys scores more
48%
level
24%
Royal Pari scores more
29%

Sport Boys at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Royal Pari

Sport Boys and Royal Pari drew 2-2 in Primera División on January 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes).