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Sport Boys vs Real Potosí — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Real Potosí
Real Potosí
9/25/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 13Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys57%
×Draw22%
Real Potosí21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
2.00
Real Potosí
1.13

Sport Boys creates 77% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 58 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
Real Potosí
0.84

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
Real Potosí
2.45

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Real Potosí+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Real Potosí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
79%
Sport Boys or Real Potosí
78%
Draw or Real Potosí
43%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
34%
Real Potosí wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
86%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
59%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
32%
Real Potosí 1+ goals
68%
Real Potosí 2+ goals
31%
Real Potosí 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
73%
Real Potosí (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Real Potosí away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Real Potosí defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.00

Real Potosí attack 0.84 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sport Boys scores more
57%
level
22%
Real Potosí scores more
21%

Sport Boys at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sport Boys 6–2 Real Potosí

Sport Boys beat Real Potosí 6-2 in Primera División on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Gilberto Parada (Montero).