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Sport Boys vs Jorge Wilstermann — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
9/14/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Integración Bolivia (Yapacaní)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys43%
×Draw25%
Jorge Wilstermann32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.53
Jorge Wilstermann
1.27

Sport Boys creates 20% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 123 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
Jorge Wilstermann
1.12

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
Jorge Wilstermann
1.52

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Jorge Wilstermann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
68%
Sport Boys or Jorge Wilstermann
75%
Draw or Jorge Wilstermann
57%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
21%
Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
78%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
45%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
20%
Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
72%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
36%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
58%
Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Jorge Wilstermann away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.53

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.12 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Boys scores more
43%
level
25%
Jorge Wilstermann scores more
32%

Sport Boys at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Jorge Wilstermann

Jorge Wilstermann beat Sport Boys 2-1 in Primera División on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Integración Bolivia (Yapacaní).