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Sport Boys vs Bolívar — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Bolívar
Bolívar
5/23/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 26Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys33%
×Draw23%
Bolívar44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.44
Bolívar
1.71

Bolívar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 135 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
Bolívar
2.01

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
Bolívar
1.33

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Bolívar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Bolívar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
56%
Sport Boys or Bolívar
77%
Draw or Bolívar
67%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
15%
Bolívar wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
76%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
42%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
18%
Bolívar 1+ goals
82%
Bolívar 2+ goals
51%
Bolívar 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
42%
Bolívar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Bolívar away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.33 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Bolívar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bolívar attack 2.01 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sport Boys scores more
33%
level
23%
Bolívar scores more
44%

Bolívar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Bolívar

Bolívar beat Sport Boys 2-1 in Primera División on May 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes).