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Sport Boys vs Always Ready — Primera División 2019

Sport Boys
Sport Boys
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Always Ready
Always Ready
1/19/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sport Boys39%
×Draw24%
Always Ready36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Boys
1.52
Always Ready
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sport Boys
1.54
Always Ready
1.50

allows per match

Sport Boys
1.42
Always Ready
1.51

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par
Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Always Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw
64%
Sport Boys or Always Ready
76%
Draw or Always Ready
61%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+
19%
Always Ready wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals
78%
Sport Boys 2+ goals
45%
Sport Boys 3+ goals
20%
Always Ready 1+ goals
77%
Always Ready 2+ goals
43%
Always Ready 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)
52%
Always Ready (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.54 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Sport Boys defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sport Boys scores more
39%
level
24%
Always Ready scores more
36%

Sport Boys at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Boys vs Always Ready

Sport Boys and Always Ready drew 1-1 in Primera División on January 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Samuel Vaca Jimenez (Warnes).