Sport Boys 1–0 Academia Cantolao: Result & Stats

Sport Boys

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Academia Cantolao

C. Florez 36'

9/18/2022

Primera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Sport Boys48%

×Draw26%

Academia Cantolao27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport BoysExpected goals in this matchAcademia Cantolao

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.06

Sport Boys

1.51

Academia Cantolao

1.06

Sport Boys creates 42% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 95 away

1.30

creates per match

0.89

1.23

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Sport Boys

1.30

Academia Cantolao

0.89

allows per match

Sport Boys

1.23

Academia Cantolao

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport Boys+0.00on par

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Boys ↓

Academia Cantolao →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sport Boys or draw

73%

Sport Boys or Academia Cantolao

74%

Draw or Academia Cantolao

52%

Winning margin

Sport Boys wins by 2+

24%

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sport Boys 1+ goals

78%

Sport Boys 2+ goals

44%

Sport Boys 3+ goals

19%

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

65%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

29%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sport Boys (draw refunded)

64%

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Boys at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 133 matches

Academia Cantolao away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.72 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Boys attack 1.30 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.51

Academia Cantolao attack 0.89 + Sport Boys defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sport Boys scores more

48%

level

26%

Academia Cantolao scores more

27%

Sport Boys at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sport Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Florez

Sport Boys · D

8.2

Match Events

26'

35'

36'

48'

58'

B. Aburto← D. Saffadi

59'

T. Carranza← J. Alarcón

67'

L. Garro← E. Uribe

70'

Tarek Carranza

78'

Jesús Castillo

79'

A. Blanco← M. Guevgeozián

79'

G. Tellas← J. Manzaneda

79'

E. Gonzáles← J. Castillo

89'

D. Ramírez← J. D´Arrigo

89'

C. Adrianzén← B. Reyna

89'

J. Huerto← C. Uribe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportAcademia

Overview

56%Possession44%

5Total Shots7

2Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

5Total Shots7

1On Target4

2Off Target3

2Blocked0

2Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

473Total Passes363

391Accurate Passes284

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides6