Spokane Velocity 3–2 Central Valley Fuego

Spokane Velocity

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Central Valley Fuego

I. Jome 43'

A. González 27'

A. Lewis 20'

K. Garcia 82'

Z. Vazquez 25'

9/8/2024

USL League One · Round 10One Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Spokane Velocity48%

×Draw24%

Central Valley Fuego28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spokane VelocityExpected goals in this matchCentral Valley Fuego

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.26

Spokane Velocity

1.72

Central Valley Fuego

1.26

Spokane Velocity creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 42 away

1.49

creates per match

1.38

1.14

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Spokane Velocity

1.49

Central Valley Fuego

1.38

allows per match

Spokane Velocity

1.14

Central Valley Fuego

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par

Central Valley Fuego+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spokane Velocity ↓

Central Valley Fuego →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Spokane Velocity or draw

72%

Spokane Velocity or Central Valley Fuego

76%

Draw or Central Valley Fuego

52%

Winning margin

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+

26%

Central Valley Fuego wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals

82%

Spokane Velocity 2+ goals

51%

Spokane Velocity 3+ goals

25%

Central Valley Fuego 1+ goals

72%

Central Valley Fuego 2+ goals

36%

Central Valley Fuego 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)

63%

Central Valley Fuego (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spokane Velocity at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Central Valley Fuego away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.95 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spokane Velocity attack 1.49 + Central Valley Fuego defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.72

Central Valley Fuego attack 1.38 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spokane Velocity scores more

48%

level

24%

Central Valley Fuego scores more

28%

Spokane Velocity at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spokane Velocity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Waldeck

15'

O. Lemus

20'

A. Lewis↳ L. Gil

25'

Z. Vazquez

27'

A. González↳ A. Lewis

31'

I. Jome

41'

D. Nembhard

43'

I. Jome

46'

J. Denton← A. González

46'

R. Mendiola← A. Apollon

55'

Z. Vazquez

60'

L. Merrill← D. Waldeck

60'

65'

69'

82'

85'

85'

Javier Martín Gil← A. Longmire

90+3'

A. Cromwell← R. Mendiola

Spokane

Central

1

Zuluaga

3

▼

Apollon

24

Bustamant

31

Nembhard

17

▼

15

10

20

8

14

⚽

Vazquez

32

Mariona

31

Thompson

15

⚽

Jome

5

Lage

18

▼

Waldeck

21

▼

Longmire

12

Miller

10

A

Gil

77

⚽A

▼

Lewis

6

Fernández

24

⚽

▼

González

9

▼

Dolling

Manager: L. Veidman

46'▲J. Denton←▼A. González

60'▲L. Merrill←▼D. Waldeck

60'▲K. Smith←▼J. Dolling

85'▲A. Peláez←▼A. Lewis

85'▲Javier Martín Gil←▼A. Longmire

Spokane Velocity substitutes

19Denton93Merrill17Smith16Peláez2Gil1Merancio30Akale

Manager: J. Jones

46'▲R. Mendiola←▼A. Apollon

69'▲K. Garcia←▼O. Lemus

90+3'▲A. Cromwell←▼R. Mendiola

Central Valley Fuego substitutes

11Mendiola34Garcia4Cromwell19Williams33Vinberg26Chalmers23Ávilez