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Spjelkavik vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
FT
7 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Surnadal
Surnadal
3/29/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 1Spjelkavik kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Spjelkavik79%
×Draw13%
Surnadal9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spjelkavik
3.02
Surnadal
0.92

Spjelkavik creates 228% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Spjelkavik
2.18
Surnadal
0.69

allows per match

Spjelkavik
1.16
Surnadal
3.85

finishing

Spjelkavik+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spjelkavik ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Spjelkavik or draw
91%
Spjelkavik or Surnadal
87%
Draw or Surnadal
21%

Winning margin

Spjelkavik wins by 2+
59%
Surnadal wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spjelkavik 1+ goals
95%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
80%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
57%
Surnadal 1+ goals
60%
Surnadal 2+ goals
23%
Surnadal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
90%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spjelkavik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Surnadal away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spjelkavik attack 2.18 + Surnadal defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 3.02

Surnadal attack 0.69 + Spjelkavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Spjelkavik scores more
79%
level
13%
Surnadal scores more
9%

Spjelkavik at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spjelkavik vs Surnadal

Spjelkavik beat Surnadal 7-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Spjelkavik kunstgress in Ålesund.