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Spjelkavik vs Kristiansund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kristiansund II
Kristiansund II
10/18/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 25Spjelkavik kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Spjelkavik65%
×Draw19%
Kristiansund II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spjelkavik
2.32
Kristiansund II
1.08

Spjelkavik creates 115% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

creates per match

Spjelkavik
2.18
Kristiansund II
1.00

allows per match

Spjelkavik
1.16
Kristiansund II
2.46

finishing

Spjelkavik+0.00on par
Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spjelkavik ↓

Kristiansund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spjelkavik or draw
84%
Spjelkavik or Kristiansund II
81%
Draw or Kristiansund II
35%

Winning margin

Spjelkavik wins by 2+
42%
Kristiansund II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spjelkavik 1+ goals
90%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
67%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
40%
Kristiansund II 1+ goals
66%
Kristiansund II 2+ goals
29%
Kristiansund II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
80%
Kristiansund II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spjelkavik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spjelkavik attack 2.18 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.32

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Spjelkavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spjelkavik scores more
65%
level
19%
Kristiansund II scores more
16%

Spjelkavik at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spjelkavik vs Kristiansund II

Spjelkavik beat Kristiansund II 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Spjelkavik kunstgress in Ålesund.