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Spjelkavik vs Kolstad — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
FT
1 – 0
Kolstad
Kolstad
10/2/20213. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Girone 5 - 9Spjelkavik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Spjelkavik64%
×Draw18%
Kolstad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spjelkavik
2.59
Kolstad
1.31

Spjelkavik creates 98% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

Spjelkavik
1.70
Kolstad
1.73

allows per match

Spjelkavik
0.90
Kolstad
3.48

finishing

Spjelkavik+0.00on par
Kolstad+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spjelkavik ↓

Kolstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Spjelkavik or draw
82%
Spjelkavik or Kolstad
82%
Draw or Kolstad
36%

Winning margin

Spjelkavik wins by 2+
43%
Kolstad wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Spjelkavik 1+ goals
92%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
73%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
47%
Kolstad 1+ goals
73%
Kolstad 2+ goals
38%
Kolstad 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
78%
Kolstad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spjelkavik at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Kolstad away — creates 1.73, concedes 3.48 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spjelkavik attack 1.70 + Kolstad defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.59

Kolstad attack 1.73 + Spjelkavik defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Spjelkavik scores more
64%
level
18%
Kolstad scores more
18%

Spjelkavik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spjelkavik vs Kolstad

Spjelkavik beat Kolstad 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Spjelkavik stadion in Ålesund.