Spjelkavik 4–0 HamKam II: Result & Stats

Spjelkavik

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HamKam II

10/14/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 24Spjelkavik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Spjelkavik59%

×Draw19%

HamKam II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpjelkavikExpected goals in this matchHamKam II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

1.39

Spjelkavik

2.36

HamKam II

1.39

Spjelkavik creates 70% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 13 away

2.18

creates per match

1.62

1.16

allows per match

2.54

creates per match

Spjelkavik

2.18

HamKam II

1.62

allows per match

Spjelkavik

1.16

HamKam II

2.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spjelkavik+0.00on par

HamKam II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spjelkavik ↓

HamKam II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Spjelkavik or draw

78%

Spjelkavik or HamKam II

81%

Draw or HamKam II

41%

Winning margin

Spjelkavik wins by 2+

37%

HamKam II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spjelkavik 1+ goals

90%

Spjelkavik 2+ goals

68%

Spjelkavik 3+ goals

41%

HamKam II 1+ goals

75%

HamKam II 2+ goals

40%

HamKam II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)

73%

HamKam II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spjelkavik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

HamKam II away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spjelkavik attack 2.18 + HamKam II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.36

HamKam II attack 1.62 + Spjelkavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spjelkavik scores more

59%

level

19%

HamKam II scores more

22%

Spjelkavik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff