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Spjelkavik vs Floro — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Floro
Floro
4/18/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 2Spjelkavik stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Spjelkavik57%
×Draw20%
Floro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spjelkavik
2.19
Floro
1.33

Spjelkavik creates 65% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 26 away

creates per match

Spjelkavik
2.18
Floro
1.50

allows per match

Spjelkavik
1.16
Floro
2.19

finishing

Spjelkavik+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spjelkavik ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Spjelkavik or draw
77%
Spjelkavik or Floro
80%
Draw or Floro
43%

Winning margin

Spjelkavik wins by 2+
35%
Floro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spjelkavik 1+ goals
89%
Spjelkavik 2+ goals
64%
Spjelkavik 3+ goals
37%
Floro 1+ goals
74%
Floro 2+ goals
38%
Floro 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spjelkavik (draw refunded)
71%
Floro (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spjelkavik at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 45 matches

Floro away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spjelkavik attack 2.18 + Floro defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.19

Floro attack 1.50 + Spjelkavik defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spjelkavik scores more
57%
level
20%
Floro scores more
23%

Spjelkavik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spjelkavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Spjelkavik 4–1 Floro

Spjelkavik beat Floro 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Spjelkavik stadion in Ålesund.