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Spittal vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Spittal
Spittal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Wels
Wels
6/3/2022Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 33Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Spittal48%
×Draw23%
Wels29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
1.79
Wels
1.36

Spittal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 46 away

creates per match

Spittal
0.68
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Spittal
1.64
Wels
2.89

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
71%
Spittal or Wels
77%
Draw or Wels
52%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
26%
Wels wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
83%
Spittal 2+ goals
53%
Spittal 3+ goals
26%
Wels 1+ goals
74%
Wels 2+ goals
39%
Wels 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
62%
Wels (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 0.68 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wels attack 1.09 + Spittal defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spittal scores more
48%
level
23%
Wels scores more
29%

Spittal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spittal vs Wels

Wels beat Spittal 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on June 3, 2022.

The match was played at Goldeckstadion in Spittal an der Drau.