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Spittal vs St. Jakob Rosental — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Spittal
Spittal
FT
1 – 1
St. Jakob Rosental
St. Jakob Rosental
9/20/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 9Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Spittal47%
×Draw22%
St. Jakob Rosental31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
1.90
St. Jakob Rosental
1.50

Spittal creates 27% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 76 away

creates per match

Spittal
2.25
St. Jakob Rosental
1.51

allows per match

Spittal
1.50
St. Jakob Rosental
1.55

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
St. Jakob Rosental+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

St. Jakob Rosental →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
69%
Spittal or St. Jakob Rosental
78%
Draw or St. Jakob Rosental
53%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
26%
St. Jakob Rosental wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
85%
Spittal 2+ goals
56%
Spittal 3+ goals
29%
St. Jakob Rosental 1+ goals
78%
St. Jakob Rosental 2+ goals
44%
St. Jakob Rosental 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
61%
St. Jakob Rosental (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

St. Jakob Rosental away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.55 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 2.25 + St. Jakob Rosental defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.90

St. Jakob Rosental attack 1.51 + Spittal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spittal scores more
47%
level
22%
St. Jakob Rosental scores more
31%

Spittal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spittal 1 – 1 St. Jakob Rosental

Spittal and St. Jakob Rosental drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Goldeckstadion in Spittal an der Drau.