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Spittal vs Maria Saal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Spittal
Spittal
FT
4 – 1
Maria Saal
Maria Saal
3/31/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 23Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Spittal58%
×Draw19%
Maria Saal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
2.39
Maria Saal
1.46

Spittal creates 64% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 49 away

creates per match

Spittal
2.25
Maria Saal
1.43

allows per match

Spittal
1.50
Maria Saal
2.53

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
Maria Saal+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

Maria Saal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
77%
Spittal or Maria Saal
81%
Draw or Maria Saal
42%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
37%
Maria Saal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
91%
Spittal 2+ goals
69%
Spittal 3+ goals
42%
Maria Saal 1+ goals
77%
Maria Saal 2+ goals
43%
Maria Saal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
72%
Maria Saal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Maria Saal away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 2.25 + Maria Saal defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.39

Maria Saal attack 1.43 + Spittal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Spittal scores more
58%
level
19%
Maria Saal scores more
23%

Spittal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Spittal 4–1 Maria Saal

Spittal beat Maria Saal 4-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Goldeckstadion in Spittal an der Drau.