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Spittal vs Gmünd — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Spittal
Spittal
FT
3 – 0
Gmünd
Gmünd
5/12/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 29Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Spittal54%
×Draw22%
Gmünd25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
2.02
Gmünd
1.31

Spittal creates 54% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 48 away

creates per match

Spittal
2.25
Gmünd
1.13

allows per match

Spittal
1.50
Gmünd
1.79

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
75%
Spittal or Gmünd
78%
Draw or Gmünd
46%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
31%
Gmünd wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
87%
Spittal 2+ goals
60%
Spittal 3+ goals
33%
Gmünd 1+ goals
73%
Gmünd 2+ goals
38%
Gmünd 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
68%
Gmünd (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 2.25 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Spittal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Spittal scores more
54%
level
22%
Gmünd scores more
25%

Spittal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Spittal 3–0 Gmünd

Spittal beat Gmünd 3-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Goldeckstadion in Spittal an der Drau.