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Spittal vs Ferlach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Spittal
Spittal
FT
4 – 1
Ferlach
Ferlach
3/24/2024Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Spittal53%
×Draw22%
Ferlach25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
2.00
Ferlach
1.33

Spittal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 92 away

creates per match

Spittal
2.25
Ferlach
1.16

allows per match

Spittal
1.50
Ferlach
1.76

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
Ferlach+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

Ferlach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
75%
Spittal or Ferlach
78%
Draw or Ferlach
47%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
31%
Ferlach wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
86%
Spittal 2+ goals
59%
Spittal 3+ goals
32%
Ferlach 1+ goals
74%
Ferlach 2+ goals
38%
Ferlach 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
68%
Ferlach (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 68 matches

Ferlach away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 2.25 + Ferlach defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ferlach attack 1.16 + Spittal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spittal scores more
53%
level
22%
Ferlach scores more
25%

Spittal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spittal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spittal vs Ferlach

Spittal beat Ferlach 4-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Goldeckstadion in Spittal an der Drau.