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Spittal vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Spittal
Spittal
CANC
21:00
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
5/12/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 26Goldeckstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Spittal31%
×Draw24%
Bad Gleichenberg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spittal
1.36
Bad Gleichenberg
1.69

Bad Gleichenberg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 75 away

creates per match

Spittal
0.68
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Spittal
1.64
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Spittal+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spittal ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Spittal or draw
55%
Spittal or Bad Gleichenberg
76%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
69%

Winning margin

Spittal wins by 2+
14%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Spittal 1+ goals
74%
Spittal 2+ goals
39%
Spittal 3+ goals
16%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
82%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
50%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Spittal (draw refunded)
41%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spittal at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spittal attack 0.68 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Spittal defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spittal scores more
31%
level
24%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
45%

Bad Gleichenberg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Spittal host Bad Gleichenberg

May 12, 2021: Spittal take on Bad Gleichenberg in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Spittal host Bad Gleichenberg at Goldeckstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.