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Spital vs VJS II — Suomen Cup 2018

Spital
Spital
FT
1 – 2
VJS II
VJS II
3/23/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spital16%
×Draw16%
VJS II69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spital
1.43
VJS II
3.02

VJS II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spital
2.00
VJS II
4.71

allows per match

Spital
1.33
VJS II
0.86

finishing

Spital+0.00on par
VJS II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spital ↓

VJS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Spital or draw
31%
Spital or VJS II
84%
Draw or VJS II
84%

Winning margin

Spital wins by 2+
6%
VJS II wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Spital 1+ goals
76%
Spital 2+ goals
42%
Spital 3+ goals
17%
VJS II 1+ goals
95%
VJS II 2+ goals
80%
VJS II 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Spital (draw refunded)
19%
VJS II (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spital at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

VJS II away — creates 4.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spital attack 2.00 + VJS II defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

VJS II attack 4.71 + Spital defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 3.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Spital scores more
16%
level
16%
VJS II scores more
69%

VJS II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "VJS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Spital 1–2 VJS II

VJS II beat Spital 2-1 in Suomen Cup on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.