Spišské Podhradie 2–5 Slávia TU Košice

Spišské Podhradie

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Slávia TU Košice

8/25/2024

3. liga - East · East - 4Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Spišské Podhradie34%

×Draw23%

Slávia TU Košice42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spišské PodhradieExpected goals in this matchSlávia TU Košice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.69

Spišské Podhradie

1.50

Slávia TU Košice

1.69

Slávia TU Košice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 66 away

1.47

creates per match

1.45

1.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie

1.47

Slávia TU Košice

1.45

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie

1.92

Slávia TU Košice

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Slávia TU Košice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw

58%

Spišské Podhradie or Slávia TU Košice

77%

Draw or Slávia TU Košice

66%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+

16%

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals

78%

Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals

44%

Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals

19%

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

82%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

50%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)

45%

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Slávia TU Košice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Slávia TU Košice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Slávia TU Košice attack 1.45 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more

34%

level

23%

Slávia TU Košice scores more

42%

Slávia TU Košice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slávia TU Košice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff