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Spišské Podhradie vs Milénium — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
FT
3 – 1
Milénium
Milénium
9/27/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 10Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Spišské Podhradie55%
×Draw21%
Milénium24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišské Podhradie
2.11
Milénium
1.33

Spišské Podhradie creates 59% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 8 away

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.47
Milénium
0.75

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.92
Milénium
2.75

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par
Milénium+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Milénium →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw
76%
Spišské Podhradie or Milénium
79%
Draw or Milénium
45%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
33%
Milénium wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
88%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
62%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
35%
Milénium 1+ goals
74%
Milénium 2+ goals
38%
Milénium 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
70%
Milénium (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Milénium away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Milénium defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.11

Milénium attack 0.75 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more
55%
level
21%
Milénium scores more
24%

Spišské Podhradie at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spišské Podhradie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spišské Podhradie vs Milénium

Spišské Podhradie beat Milénium 3-1 in 3. liga - East on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie in Spišské Podhradie.