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Spišské Podhradie vs Lipany — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Lipany
Lipany
11/10/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 15Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Spišské Podhradie32%
×Draw23%
Lipany45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišské Podhradie
1.46
Lipany
1.75

Lipany creates 20% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 80 away

creates per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.47
Lipany
1.57

allows per match

Spišské Podhradie
1.92
Lipany
1.45

finishing

Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par
Lipany+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišské Podhradie ↓

Lipany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Spišské Podhradie or draw
55%
Spišské Podhradie or Lipany
77%
Draw or Lipany
68%

Winning margin

Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
15%
Lipany wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
77%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
43%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
18%
Lipany 1+ goals
83%
Lipany 2+ goals
52%
Lipany 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
42%
Lipany (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišské Podhradie at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.92 · 64 matches

Lipany away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.45 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišské Podhradie attack 1.47 + Lipany defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lipany attack 1.57 + Spišské Podhradie defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spišské Podhradie scores more
32%
level
23%
Lipany scores more
45%

Lipany at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lipany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Spišské Podhradie 0–4 Lipany

Lipany beat Spišské Podhradie 4-0 in 3. liga - East on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Štadión MŠK Spišské Podhradie in Spišské Podhradie.