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Spišská Nová Ves vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Spišská Nová Ves
Spišská Nová Ves
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
10/1/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 9Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves76%
×Draw16%
Slovan Giraltovce9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spišská Nová Ves
2.45
Slovan Giraltovce
0.69

Spišská Nová Ves creates 255% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 38 away

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves
2.56
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves
0.88
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw
91%
Spišská Nová Ves or Slovan Giraltovce
84%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
24%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+
53%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals
91%
Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals
70%
Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals
44%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
50%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
15%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)
90%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.88 · 66 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 2.56 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.45

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more
76%
level
16%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
9%

Spišská Nová Ves at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spišská Nová Ves vs Slovan Giraltovce

Spišská Nová Ves beat Slovan Giraltovce 3-0 in 3. liga - East on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.