Spišská Nová Ves 0–1 Púchov: Result & Stats

Spišská Nová Ves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Púchov

M. Klabník 45'

9/23/2023

2. liga · Round 9Štadión Nová Ves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Spišská Nová Ves42%

×Draw24%

Púchov33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spišská Nová VesExpected goals in this matchPúchov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.38

Spišská Nová Ves

1.58

Púchov

1.38

Spišská Nová Ves creates 14% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 92 away

1.29

creates per match

1.43

1.33

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Spišská Nová Ves

1.29

Púchov

1.43

allows per match

Spišská Nová Ves

1.33

Púchov

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Púchov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spišská Nová Ves ↓

Púchov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Spišská Nová Ves or draw

67%

Spišská Nová Ves or Púchov

76%

Draw or Púchov

58%

Winning margin

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

21%

Púchov wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

79%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

47%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

21%

Púchov 1+ goals

75%

Púchov 2+ goals

40%

Púchov 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

56%

Púchov (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spišská Nová Ves at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

Púchov away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.88 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.29 + Púchov defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Púchov attack 1.43 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

42%

level

24%

Púchov scores more

33%

Spišská Nová Ves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

A. Kopicar

41'

L. Letenay

41'

S. Kapusniak← J. Martinček

45'

45+1'

45'

52'

58'

58'

J. Skovran

58'

D. Martinko← L. Ontko

58'

A. Kourouma← M. Pribula

64'

A. Gavrylenko

66'

Š. Holiš← P. Lacko

68'

J. Pavlovic

71'

J. Kamenicky

73'

73'

76'

82'

83'

89'

90+5'

90+3'

L. Štrauch← L. Letenay

Spišská

Púchov

31

Vavrúš

18

⚽

2

3

12

10

13

19

15

▼

Lacko

7

▼

Martinček

21

▼

1

90

8

17

66

6

▼

Ontko

13

Havrylenk

12

▼

Etim

4

Lasso

20

▼

Pribula

7

▼

Škovran

Manager: B. Ondáš

58'▲D. Martinko←▼L. Ontko

58'▲A. Kourouma←▼M. Pribula

73'▲M. Kunzo←▼J. Škovran

73'▲Š. Ištvánik←▼J. Etim

Spišská Nová Ves substitutes

16Martinko23Kourouma9Kunzo10Ištvánik15Chodníček18Kaščák19Vakulinskyi22Baláž31Gáborčík

Manager: M. Zimen

41'▲S. Kapusniak←▼J. Martinček

66'▲Š. Holiš←▼P. Lacko

90+3'▲L. Štrauch←▼L. Letenay

Púchov substitutes

11Kapusniak9Holiš16Štrauch1Pilný8Lévai14Mráz17Šeroň

Match Recap: Spišská Nová Ves vs Púchov

Púchov beat Spišská Nová Ves 1-0 in 2. liga on September 23, 2023.

Goals: M. Klabník (45').

The match was played at Štadión Nová Ves in Spišská Nová Ves.

Spišská Nová Ves vs Púchov — 2. liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spišská Nová Ves vs Púchov