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Spinea vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mestre
Mestre
2/12/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea25%
×Draw30%
Mestre45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
0.83
Mestre
1.21

Mestre creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
55%
Spinea or Mestre
70%
Draw or Mestre
75%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
8%
Mestre wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
56%
Spinea 2+ goals
20%
Spinea 3+ goals
5%
Mestre 1+ goals
70%
Mestre 2+ goals
34%
Mestre 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
36%
Mestre (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.83

Mestre attack 0.94 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spinea scores more
25%
level
30%
Mestre scores more
45%

Mestre at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spinea vs Mestre

Spinea and Mestre drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.