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Spinea vs Levico — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Levico
Levico
3/26/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea33%
×Draw30%
Levico37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
1.00
Levico
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Levico
0.71

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Levico
1.53

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Levico+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Levico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
63%
Spinea or Levico
70%
Draw or Levico
67%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
12%
Levico wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
63%
Spinea 2+ goals
26%
Spinea 3+ goals
8%
Levico 1+ goals
66%
Levico 2+ goals
30%
Levico 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
47%
Levico (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Levico away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Levico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.00

Levico attack 0.71 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spinea scores more
33%
level
30%
Levico scores more
37%

Levico at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Levico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spinea vs Levico

Levico beat Spinea 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.