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Spinea vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
G. Faraon 90'
S. Corbanese 84'
A. Cossalter 79'
A. Raimondi 45+3'
F. Toniolo 23'
5/8/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea22%
×Draw27%
Dolomiti Bellunesi52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
0.85
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 73% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
48%
Spinea or Dolomiti Bellunesi
73%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
78%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
7%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
57%
Spinea 2+ goals
21%
Spinea 3+ goals
5%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
77%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
43%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
30%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.85

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spinea scores more
22%
level
27%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
52%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
F. Toniolo
45+3'
A. Raimondi
79'
A. Cossalter
84'
S. Corbanese
90'
G. Faraon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spinea vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Spinea 5-0 in Serie D - Girone C on May 8, 2022.

Goals: F. Toniolo (23'), A. Raimondi (45+3'), A. Cossalter (79'), S. Corbanese (84'), G. Faraon (90').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.