Spinea 2–4 Clodiense: Result & Stats

Spinea

FT

2 – 4

Clodiense

A. Menato 35'

M. Numi 32'

A. Calabrese 60' (pen), 54'

A. Ndreca 26'

A. Dei Poli 21' (OG)

11/28/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 11Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea18%

×Draw27%

Clodiense55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpineaExpected goals in this matchClodiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.46

Spinea

0.71

Clodiense

1.46

Clodiense creates 106% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

0.47

creates per match

1.44

1.47

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Spinea

0.47

Clodiense

1.44

allows per match

Spinea

1.47

Clodiense

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par

Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Clodiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spinea or draw

45%

Spinea or Clodiense

73%

Draw or Clodiense

82%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+

5%

Clodiense wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals

51%

Spinea 2+ goals

16%

Spinea 3+ goals

4%

Clodiense 1+ goals

77%

Clodiense 2+ goals

43%

Clodiense 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)

25%

Clodiense (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.71

Clodiense attack 1.44 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spinea scores more

18%

level

27%

Clodiense scores more

55%

Clodiense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

A. Dei PoliOwn goal

26'

A. Ndreca

32'

M. Numi

35'

A. Menato

54'

A. Calabrese

60'

A. CalabresePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff