Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spinea vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
0 – 0
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
10/10/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 4Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea24%
×Draw28%
Cjarlins Muzane47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
0.85
Cjarlins Muzane
1.31

Cjarlins Muzane creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
53%
Spinea or Cjarlins Muzane
72%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
76%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
8%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
57%
Spinea 2+ goals
21%
Spinea 3+ goals
5%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
73%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
38%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
34%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.85

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spinea scores more
24%
level
28%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
47%

Cjarlins Muzane at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spinea vs Cjarlins Muzane

Spinea and Cjarlins Muzane drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.