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Spinea vs Campodarsego — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Campodarsego
Campodarsego
4/27/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea21%
×Draw28%
Campodarsego51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
0.73
Campodarsego
1.33

Campodarsego creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Campodarsego
1.20

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Campodarsego
0.99

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Campodarsego+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Campodarsego →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
49%
Spinea or Campodarsego
72%
Draw or Campodarsego
79%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
6%
Campodarsego wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
52%
Spinea 2+ goals
17%
Spinea 3+ goals
4%
Campodarsego 1+ goals
74%
Campodarsego 2+ goals
38%
Campodarsego 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
29%
Campodarsego (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Campodarsego away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Campodarsego defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.73

Campodarsego attack 1.20 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Spinea scores more
21%
level
28%
Campodarsego scores more
51%

Campodarsego at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Campodarsego will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Spinea 1–3 Campodarsego

Campodarsego beat Spinea 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.