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Spinea vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
1 – 1
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
F. Dal Compare 67'
F. Peli 20' (pen)
9/26/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 2Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea22%
×Draw27%
Caldiero Terme51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
0.83
Caldiero Terme
1.41

Caldiero Terme creates 70% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
49%
Spinea or Caldiero Terme
73%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
78%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
7%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
56%
Spinea 2+ goals
20%
Spinea 3+ goals
5%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
76%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
41%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
30%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.83

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Spinea scores more
22%
level
27%
Caldiero Terme scores more
51%

Caldiero Terme at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. PeliPenalty
67'
F. Dal Compare

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spinea vs Caldiero Terme

Spinea and Caldiero Terme drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on September 26, 2021.

Goals: F. Peli (20' pen), F. Dal Compare (67').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.