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Spinea vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Spinea
Spinea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Adriese
Adriese
D. Rosso 77'
3/6/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 23Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spinea24%
×Draw27%
Adriese49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spinea
0.92
Adriese
1.42

Adriese creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Spinea
0.47
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Spinea
1.47
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Spinea+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spinea ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Spinea or draw
51%
Spinea or Adriese
73%
Draw or Adriese
76%

Winning margin

Spinea wins by 2+
8%
Adriese wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Spinea 1+ goals
60%
Spinea 2+ goals
23%
Spinea 3+ goals
7%
Adriese 1+ goals
76%
Adriese 2+ goals
41%
Adriese 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Spinea (draw refunded)
33%
Adriese (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spinea at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spinea attack 0.47 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.92

Adriese attack 1.36 + Spinea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spinea scores more
24%
level
27%
Adriese scores more
49%

Adriese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

77'
D. Rosso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Spinea 0–1 Adriese

Adriese beat Spinea 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Rosso (77').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Salvador Allende in Spinea.