Spezia 0–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Udinese

L. Samardžić 89'

9/12/2021

Serie A · Round 3Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spezia36%

×Draw25%

Udinese39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.42

Spezia

1.36

Udinese

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 139 away

1.17

creates per match

1.18

1.66

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Spezia

1.17

Udinese

1.18

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Udinese

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Udinese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

61%

Spezia or Udinese

75%

Draw or Udinese

64%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

16%

Udinese wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

74%

Spezia 2+ goals

39%

Spezia 3+ goals

16%

Udinese 1+ goals

76%

Udinese 2+ goals

41%

Udinese 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

48%

Udinese (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Udinese defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Udinese attack 1.18 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spezia scores more

36%

level

25%

Udinese scores more

39%

Udinese at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Silvestri

Udinese · G

8.5

Match Events

13'

14'

14'

62'

62'

K. Agudelo← V. Kovalenko

63'

J. Makengo← Walace

63'

Beto← I. Pussetto

71'

M. Bourabia← J. Sala

81'

L. Samardžić← Deulofeu

86'

86'

87'

87'

89'

L. Samardžić↳ J. Makengo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaUdinese

Overview

56%Possession44%

19Total Shots9

4Corners5

12Fouls14

Shots

19Total Shots9

6On Target4

7Off Target4

6Blocked1

7Inside Box5

12Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

461Total Passes368

394Accurate Passes309

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2

Serie A: Spezia 0–1 Udinese

Udinese beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie A on September 12, 2021.

Goals: L. Samardžić (89').

Spezia controlled possession (56%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.

Spezia vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Spezia 0–1 Udinese