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Spezia vs Torino — Serie A 2026

Spezia
Spezia
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Torino
Torino
Y. Karamoh 90+6'
I. Ilić 76'
S. Ricci 72'
P. Wiśniewski 24' (OG)
5/27/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 37Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Spezia30%
×Draw27%
Torino42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.10
Torino
1.35

Torino creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 40 away

creates per match

Spezia
0.98
Torino
0.97

allows per match

Spezia
1.73
Torino
1.22

finishing

Spezia-0.48scores less
Torino+0.16scores more

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
58%
Spezia or Torino
73%
Draw or Torino
70%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
12%
Torino wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
67%
Spezia 2+ goals
30%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%
Torino 1+ goals
74%
Torino 2+ goals
39%
Torino 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
42%
Torino (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.73 · 8 matches

Torino away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 0.98 + Torino defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Torino attack 0.97 + Spezia defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more
30%
level
27%
Torino scores more
42%

Torino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Torino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
N. VlašićTorinoTorino · F
8.3

Match Events

11'
Albin Ekdal
16'
Ivan Ilić
24'
P. WiśniewskiOwn goal
36'
M'Bala NzolaPenalty cancelled
46'
K. Agudelo← A. Ekdal
46'
S. Żurkowski← M. Bourabia
65'
D. Verde← E. Ampadu
68'
K. Djidji← P. Schuurs
69'
Wilfried Singo
72'
S. Ricci↳ N. Vlašić
75'
M'Bala Nzola
76'
I. Ilić↳ N. Vlašić
80'
S. Bastoni← E. Gyasi
86'
M'Bala NzolaGoal cancelled
87'
O. Aina← W. Singo
87'
K. Linetty← I. Ilić
87'
Y. Karamoh← A. Miranchuk
90+6'
Y. Karamoh↳ A. Sanabria

Possession

49%Spezia

Shots

9Spezia

Pass accuracy

50%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaTorino
Overview
49%Possession51%
9Total Shots11
0.86Expected Goals (xG)1.00
5Corners2
14Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots11
1On Target4
5Off Target3
3Blocked4
3Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
323Total Passes350
239Accurate Passes255
74%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Spezia vs Torino

Torino beat Spezia 4-0 in Serie A on May 27, 2023.

Goals: P. Wiśniewski (24' o.g.), S. Ricci (72'), I. Ilić (76'), Y. Karamoh (90+6').

Torino controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.