Spezia 2–2 Sassuolo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sassuolo

E. Gyasi 47'

R. Manaj 35'

G. Raspadori 79', 66'

12/5/2021

Serie A · Round 16Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spezia36%

×Draw25%

Sassuolo40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchSassuolo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.51

Spezia

1.42

Sassuolo

1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 127 away

1.17

creates per match

1.36

1.66

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Spezia

1.17

Sassuolo

1.36

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Sassuolo

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Sassuolo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Sassuolo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

60%

Spezia or Sassuolo

75%

Draw or Sassuolo

64%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

16%

Sassuolo wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

76%

Spezia 2+ goals

41%

Spezia 3+ goals

17%

Sassuolo 1+ goals

78%

Sassuolo 2+ goals

44%

Sassuolo 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

47%

Sassuolo (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.66 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sassuolo attack 1.36 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spezia scores more

36%

level

25%

Sassuolo scores more

40%

Sassuolo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

G. Raspadori

Sassuolo · F

9.2

Match Events

1'

Arkadiusz Reca

4'

Giulio Maggiore

26'

Jacopo Sala

35'

R. Manaj↳ A. Reca

44'

Davide Frattesi

46'

G. Raspadori← Matheus Henrique

46'

J. Toljan← M. Müldür

47'

E. Gyasi↳ M'Bala Nzola

66'

G. Raspadori

67'

D. Verde← V. Kovalenko

67'

M. Bourabia← J. Sala

69'

J. Boga← G. Defrel

75'

Giorgos Kyriakopoulos

76'

P. Hristov← E. Gyasi

79'

G. Raspadori↳ D. Berardi

85'

Domenico Berardi

86'

A. Harroui← D. Frattesi

88'

S. Bastoni← G. Maggiore

88'

E. Colley← R. Manaj

90'

Petko Hristov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaSassuolo

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots20

2Corners5

11Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots20

4On Target6

3Off Target8

2Blocked6

8Inside Box7

1Outside Box13

Passing

34%Possession66%

318Total Passes606

230Accurate Passes535

72%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls9

4Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1