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Sassuolo vs Spezia — Serie A 2018

Sassuolo
Sassuolo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
3/17/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 27MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Sassuolo48%
×Draw24%
Spezia28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sassuolo
1.75
Spezia
1.28

Sassuolo creates 37% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sassuolo
1.54
Spezia
1.00

allows per match

Sassuolo
1.56
Spezia
1.96

finishing

Sassuolo+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sassuolo ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sassuolo or draw
72%
Sassuolo or Spezia
76%
Draw or Spezia
52%

Winning margin

Sassuolo wins by 2+
26%
Spezia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sassuolo 1+ goals
83%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
52%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
25%
Spezia 1+ goals
72%
Spezia 2+ goals
37%
Spezia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sassuolo (draw refunded)
63%
Spezia (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sassuolo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sassuolo attack 1.54 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.75

Spezia attack 1.00 + Sassuolo defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sassuolo scores more
48%
level
24%
Spezia scores more
28%

Sassuolo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sassuolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Sassuolo 1–0 Spezia

Sassuolo beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie A on March 17, 2023.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio nell'Emilia.