Spezia 1–2 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Reggiana

F. Esposito 90+5'

C. Gondo 81', 50'

9/23/2023

Serie B · Round 6Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia45%

×Draw26%

Reggiana29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Spezia

1.48

Reggiana

1.13

Spezia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.51

creates per match

1.09

1.17

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Reggiana

1.09

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Reggiana

1.46

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Reggiana-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

71%

Spezia or Reggiana

74%

Draw or Reggiana

55%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

22%

Reggiana wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

77%

Spezia 2+ goals

43%

Spezia 3+ goals

19%

Reggiana 1+ goals

68%

Reggiana 2+ goals

31%

Reggiana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

61%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.46 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Reggiana defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Reggiana attack 1.09 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spezia scores more

45%

level

26%

Reggiana scores more

29%

Spezia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Gondo

Reggiana · F

9.2

Match Events

21'

35'

37'

40'

46'

João Moutinho← A. Reca

50'

C. Gondo↳ E. Pieragnolo

54'

S. Żurkowski← F. Bandinelli

54'

P. Szymiński← A. Marcandalli

60'

S. Elia← D. Verde

60'

A. Ekdal← F. Cassata

65'

L. Libutti← E. Pieragnolo

66'

Muhamed Djamanca← N. Girma

71'

Janis Antiste

73'

Mario Sampirisi

77'

Francesco Bardi

78'

F. Esposito← D. Nikolaou

81'

C. Gondo↳ M. Portanova

84'

Salvatore Esposito

85'

D. Črnigoj← A. Bianco

85'

F. Nardi← J. Antiste

90+5'

F. Esposito↳ S. Esposito

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaReggiana

Overview

47%Possession53%

15Total Shots11

7Corners5

16Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target4

6Off Target5

6Blocked2

6Inside Box6

9Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

418Total Passes484

333Accurate Passes394

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls13

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1

Serie B: Spezia 1–2 Reggiana

Reggiana beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie B on September 23, 2023.

Goals: C. Gondo (50', 81'), F. Esposito (90+5').

Reggiana controlled possession (53%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.

Spezia vs Reggiana — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Spezia 1–2 Reggiana