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Reggiana vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Reggiana
Reggiana
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
5/4/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 37MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Reggiana37%
×Draw28%
Spezia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reggiana
1.20
Spezia
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 98 away

creates per match

Reggiana
1.03
Spezia
1.12

allows per match

Reggiana
1.24
Spezia
1.36

finishing

Reggiana+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw
64%
Reggiana or Spezia
72%
Draw or Spezia
63%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+
16%
Spezia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals
70%
Reggiana 2+ goals
34%
Reggiana 3+ goals
12%
Spezia 1+ goals
69%
Spezia 2+ goals
33%
Spezia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)
51%
Spezia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.36 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 1.03 + Spezia defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Spezia attack 1.12 + Reggiana defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Reggiana scores more
37%
level
28%
Spezia scores more
36%

Reggiana at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Reggiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Reggiana 2–1 Spezia

Reggiana beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie B on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia.