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Spezia vs Perugia — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Perugia
Perugia
M. Ricci 30' (pen)
E. Capradossi 22'
P. Iemmello 90'
C. Buonaiuto 6'
9/21/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 4Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Spezia43%
×Draw27%
Perugia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.35
Perugia
1.09

Spezia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 77 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.40
Perugia
1.12

allows per match

Spezia
1.06
Perugia
1.31

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Perugia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Perugia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
70%
Spezia or Perugia
73%
Draw or Perugia
57%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
20%
Perugia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
74%
Spezia 2+ goals
39%
Spezia 3+ goals
15%
Perugia 1+ goals
66%
Perugia 2+ goals
30%
Perugia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
59%
Perugia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Perugia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Perugia defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Perugia attack 1.12 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spezia scores more
43%
level
27%
Perugia scores more
30%

Spezia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
C. BuonaiutoPerugiaPerugia · M
8.3

Match Events

6'
C. Buonaiuto↳ M. Carraro
22'
E. Capradossi
24'
Mardochee Nzita
27'
Marco Carraro
28'
Vlad Dragomir
30'
M. RicciPenalty
43'
Aleandro Rosi
46'
J. Ramos← L. Vignali
61'
L. Mora← G. Maggiore
62'
P. Iemmello← D. Falcinelli
63'
Luca Mora
70'
Paolo Fernandes← V. Dragomir
81'
L. Benedetti← M. Ricci
81'
F. Melchiorri← C. Capone
90'
P. Iemmello↳ C. Buonaiuto

Possession

45%Spezia

Shots

15Spezia

Pass accuracy

48%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaPerugia
Overview
45%Possession55%
15Total Shots11
4Corners7
20Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots11
8On Target5
2Off Target3
5Blocked3
6Inside Box9
9Outside Box2
Passing
45%Possession55%
394Total Passes461
296Accurate Passes372
75%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
20Fouls15
1Yellow Cards4
0Offsides5

Serie B: Spezia 2–2 Perugia

Spezia and Perugia drew 2-2 in Serie B on September 21, 2019.

Goals: C. Buonaiuto (6'), E. Capradossi (22'), M. Ricci (30' pen), P. Iemmello (90').

Perugia controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.