Spezia 1–3 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Hellas Verona

6/11/2023

Serie A · Relegation DeciderMAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spezia38%

×Draw26%

Hellas Verona36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.34

Spezia

1.37

Hellas Verona

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 102 away

1.17

creates per match

1.02

1.66

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Spezia

1.17

Hellas Verona

1.02

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Hellas Verona

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

64%

Spezia or Hellas Verona

74%

Draw or Hellas Verona

62%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

17%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

75%

Spezia 2+ goals

40%

Spezia 3+ goals

16%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

74%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

39%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

51%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spezia scores more

38%

level

26%

Hellas Verona scores more

36%

Spezia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff