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Spezia vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
L. Mora 4'
Samuel Gustafson 61'
M. Zaccagni 25'
2/17/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 24Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Spezia42%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.35
Hellas Verona
1.11

Spezia creates 22% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 21 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.46
Hellas Verona
1.19

allows per match

Spezia
1.04
Hellas Verona
1.24

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
69%
Spezia or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
58%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
20%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
74%
Spezia 2+ goals
39%
Spezia 3+ goals
15%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
67%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
30%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
58%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 97 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.46 + Hellas Verona defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hellas Verona attack 1.19 + Spezia defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more
42%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
31%

Spezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Mora
6'
Mattia Zaccagni
8'
Davide Faraoni
11'
Luca Vignali
25'
M. Zaccagni↳ Samuel Gustafson
59'
E. Gyasi← D. Okereke
61'
Samuel Gustafson↳ S. Di Carmine
66'
Ľ. Tupta← A. Di Gaudio
68'
Ľubomír Tupta
72'
M. Crimi← P. Bartolomei
72'
S. Colombatto← D. Faraoni
81'
Matteo Ricci
83'
K. Laribi← S. Di Carmine
84'
N. Pierini← M. Ricci

Possession

48%Spezia

Shots

9Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaHellas
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots8
5Corners2
15Fouls20
Shots
9Total Shots8
5On Target5
4Off Target3
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
15Fouls20
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Spezia vs Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie B on February 17, 2019.

Goals: L. Mora (4'), M. Zaccagni (25'), Samuel Gustafson (61').

Hellas Verona controlled possession (52%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.