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Spezia vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Genoa
Genoa
12/23/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spezia39%
×Draw26%
Genoa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.40
Genoa
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 118 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.17
Genoa
0.95

allows per match

Spezia
1.66
Genoa
1.64

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Genoa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
65%
Spezia or Genoa
74%
Draw or Genoa
61%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
18%
Genoa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
75%
Spezia 2+ goals
41%
Spezia 3+ goals
17%
Genoa 1+ goals
73%
Genoa 2+ goals
37%
Genoa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
53%
Genoa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Genoa away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.64 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Genoa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.40

Genoa attack 0.95 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spezia scores more
39%
level
26%
Genoa scores more
35%

Spezia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Spezia 1–2 Genoa

Genoa beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie A on December 23, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.