Spezia 1–2 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fiorentina

K. Agudelo 74'

S. Amrabat 89'

K. Piątek 42'

2/14/2022

Serie A · Round 25Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spezia34%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.45

Spezia

1.30

Fiorentina

1.45

Fiorentina creates 12% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 136 away

1.17

creates per match

1.24

1.66

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Spezia

1.17

Fiorentina

1.24

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Fiorentina

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

59%

Spezia or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

66%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

15%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

73%

Spezia 2+ goals

37%

Spezia 3+ goals

14%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

77%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

42%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

45%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.43 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Fiorentina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fiorentina attack 1.24 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spezia scores more

34%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

41%

Fiorentina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

N. González

Fiorentina · F

8.2

Match Events

42'

K. Piątek↳ Y. Maleh

56'

K. Agudelo← J. Sala

56'

M'Bala Nzola← R. Manaj

56'

62'

67'

74'

76'

M. Bourabia← G. Maggiore

78'

Arkadiusz Reca

78'

R. Saponara← R. Sottil

79'

Arthur Cabral← K. Piątek

84'

Kelvin Amian

85'

J. Ikoné← G. Castrovilli

89'

S. Amrabat↳ Arthur Cabral

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaFiorentina

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots21

4Corners8

17Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots21

1On Target4

5Off Target11

3Blocked6

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box10

Passing

33%Possession67%

238Total Passes469

171Accurate Passes388

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides0